Here is something for the M&A fans in our class…
You gotta feel sorry for Mark Sue of RBC Capital. The same day he comes out with a note basically saying the Redback is going nowhere and investors should sell their stock and take a little profit, Ericsson announces that they are acquiring Redback at a whopping 60% premium. Those poor sods who listened to Sue missed out on all the $$$ goodies.
I’ve read Sue’s notes and I even met him once at an event, he’s a really smart guy and I think this is just terrible luck for him. What made it even worse was in his note he sized up potential suitors for Redback and didn’t even mention Ericsson… ouch!
This all reminds me of Tetlock’s study into how accurate experts are. You could spend all your time looking at a market and then miss what is in hindsight an obvious deal.
Anyway, I don’t know if this is the right forum for these sorta posts, but I thought I would give it a try.
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